The Vanguard Party View

Wednesday April 7th 2021

Scottish-Parliament


Midlothian View Holyrood Challenge: This View has been written by Michael Banks, the Vanguard Party's candidate in the Midlothian South, Tweeddale & Lauderdale constituency for the Scottish Elections on Thursday May 6th 2021

Vanguard Party champions the Union and Brexit. The UK, four Nations in Union, will prosper as an independent country, outwith the EU. If Scotland were to leave the Union and join the EU, it would not be an independent country. It would be a rule-taker from Brussels. There would be a hard border with the rest of the UK. Scottish exports to the rest of the UK are currently worth three times those to the EU. Funding via the Barnett formula would end. Scots would lose British citizenship.

Vanguard Party believes Scotland’s future should be decided by the people, not the courts. However, independence is not practical without the support of a simple majority (50 per cent + 1) of the registered electorate, not merely a simple majority of valid votes. IndyRef2 must require a simple majority of the registered electorate of the whole of Scotland, for the whole of Scotland to leave. In 2014 only 38 per cent of the registered electorate of the whole of Scotland voted for independence.

Alternatively, IndyRef2 must require a simple majority (50 per cent + 1) of the registered electorate of a region, for that region to leave. Regions voting to leave, whether or not contiguous, would form the independent country of Scotland. Other regions would remain part of the UK and continue as the devolved nation of Scotland. In 2014 Glasgow, Central Scotland and West Scotland were the only regions where 40 per cent or more of the registered electorate voted for independence.

Vanguard Party believes referendums are good for democracy and that constitutional referendums should require a simple majority of the registered electorate to succeed.

2014 IndyRef   by Region “Yes” vote Valid votes Total votes Yes % Valid votes Electorate Yes % Elect-orate Turn-out % “No” majority Swing % required IndyRef2
S. Scotland 293,511 710,847 711,399 41.3 824,931 35.6 86.2 123,825 8.7
Lothian 177,269 437,589 438,140 40.5 516,277 34.3 84.9 83,051 9.5
Central Scotland 166,272 335,224 335,509 49.6 391,198 42.5 85.8 2,680 0.4
Glasgow 194,779 364,126 364,664 53.5 486,296 40.1 75.0 (25,432) (3.5)
W. Scotland 218,412 475,604 475,950 45.9 542,137 40.3 87.8 38,780 4.1
Highlands & Islands 151,372 343,688 343,997 44.0 397,204 38.1 86.6 40,944 6.0
NE Scotland 219,391 497,163 497,603 44.1 594,661 36.9 83.7 58,381 5.9
Mid Scot & Fife 196,983 455,674 456,082 43.2 531,234 37.1 85.9 61,708 6.8
Scotland-wide total 1,617,989 3,619,915 3,623,344 44.7 4,283,938 37.8 84.6 383,937 5.3
Source of 2014 results: House of Commons Library
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